(*1

PROJECT

TITLE:

Winter

and

spring

wheat

variety

performance

evaluation

under

northern

Montana

conditions

on

the

basis

of

production

value

as

influenced

by

protein.

Ilr

GRC

2

P-F

PERSONNEL:

Project

Leader

Cooperators:

Gregg

R.

Carlson

-

Havre

-

Agronomist

Jim

Christianson

-

Great

Falls

-

MWDC

Mark

Schutt

-

Great

Palls

-

MWDC

G.

A.

Taylor

-

Oozeman

-

Breeder

(WW)

L.

E.

Talbert

-

Oozeman

-

Geneticist

(SW)

S.

P.

Lanning

-

Dozeman

-

Technician

(SW)

Individual

Cooperating

Landowners

OBJECTIVES:

f-F

p-i

It

is

the

objective

of

this

project

to

bring

quality

and

quantity

together

to

allow

the

forces

of

market

value

to

influence

evaluation

of

winter

and

spring

wheat

varieties

under

varying

cropping

conditions

in

northern

Montana.

SL^IARY:

Producers

are

well

aware

of

the

impact

protein

premiums

can

have

on

overall

market

value.

"Winning

with

quality'

or

"losing

without

it'

becomes

a

game

of

timing

which

is

not

always

an

unlimited

option

to

the

average

producer.

Producers

have

asked

researchers

to

put

recommended

practices

into

dollars

and

cents.

Such

is

never

easy;

and

this

effort

toward

quantifying

wheat

variety

performance

on

the

basis

of

total

dollar

return

is

no

exception.

The

Research

Center

had

yield

and

protein

performance

data

by

year

back

to

1982

for

numerous

locations

throughout

northern

Montana.

A

system

needed

to

be

developed

to

marry

historic

price

information

to

corresponding

agronomic

performance

for

overall

evaluation.

Upon

advice

sought

from

Jim

Christianson

of

the

Montana

Wheat

and

Barley

Committee

it

was

determined

that

market

price

values

used

for

evaluating

a

given

actual

yield

and

corresponding

protein

level

for

varieties

in

given

data

years

needed

to

be

based

on

average

annual

prices.

The

Committee

had

the

price

information

needed,

but

it

was

In

the

form

of

some

12,000

individual

pencil

entries

for

seven

years

from

1982-1987.

A

computerized

database

was

needed

to

include

the

some

38,000

values

involved

when

protein

premiums

by

quarter

were

considered.

As

the

Committee

was

already

in

the

initial

phases

of

computerizing

the

database,

the

research

center

prepared

a

temporary

computer

database

for

pilot

use

early

in

1988

f-*

Ilr

GRC

2

utilizing

only

Wednesday

markets

toward

calculating

annual

averages.

Portland

values

were

used

to

eliminate confusing

variability

associated

with

freight

rates

at

different

points

of

origin.

The

"average

of

Wednesdays'

database

was

used

in

1980

to

prepare

some

preliminary

graphics

featuring

1902-1907

data

for

producer

reviews.

Oy

December,

1900

Mark

Schutt,

Information

Officer

for

MWDC

had

developed

a

spreadsheet

program

utility

affording

much

more

efficient

computerization

of

market

data.

Thus,

daily

market

spreadsheets

are

now

being

prepared

for

all

years

available.

By

the

time

this

report

was

prepared,

the

years

1906-1900

had

been

made

available

to

the

research

center.

Thus,

the

present

analyses

feature

annual

market

values

per

year

based

on

daily

market

quotes

for

1906-

1900;

and

on

Wednesday

market

quotes

for

1902-1905.

(-1

For

these

preliminary

location

analyses,

an

average

market

value

per

acre

by

actual

yield

at

ordinary

protein

was

calculated

for

each

entry

along

with

added

market

value

for

protein

premium,

if

any.

The

sum

of

the

two

values

then

represents

the

gross

return

per

acre.

The

values

were

tested

via

simple

analysis

of

variance

with

data

years

as

replications.

RESULTS:

Preliminary results

are

shown

graphically

in

Figures

1-10

representing

the

:

following

location

data:

Fig.

Crop

Location

#

Varieties

#

Yt

n

1

Flw-WW

Havre

6

»la

Flw-WW

Havre

6

5

2

Flw-WW

Dig

Sandy

6

n

»2a

Flw-WW

Dig

Sandy

7

5

3

Flw-WW

North

Havre

4

3

4

Flw-SW

Havre

5

7

*4a

Flw-SW

Havre

6

4

5

Rcp-SW

Havre

5

6

Flw-SW

North

Havre

5

6

7

Rcp-SW

North

Havre

5

4

0

Rcp-SW

North

Joplin

5

9

Flw-SW

Turner

5

6

10

Flw-SW

North

Dodson

5

♦Denotes

graphs

representing

a

reduced

number

of

years

for

purposes

of

including

pertinent

new

releases

for

which

data

does

not

exist

for

all

years

since

1902.

1-1

The

research

center

would

appreciate

any

comments

on

this

approach

to

wheat

variety

performance

evaluation.

It

must

be

kept

in

mind

that

nitrogen

p-i

voY

Ilr

GRC

2

fertility

can

dramatically

affect

such

results.

Soil

nutrient

information

is

available

for

these

data

(applied

N,

P,

K

for

1902-1905,

and

soil

nutrient

analysis

plus

applied

N,

P,

K

for

1906-1900).

All

Havre

data

represents

a

minimum

^applied

nitrogen'

rate

of

70

pounds

N.

Management

can

further

affect

overall

crop

yield

and

quality

performance;

and

shrewd

marketing

skills

will

not

limit

the

progressive

manager

to

average

annual

market

values.

FUTURE

PLANS:

The

research

center

plans

to

continue

work

with

MWDC

and

wheat

breeders

in

further

developing

and

refining

the

use

of

these

data

with

agricultural

^

producers.

First,

the

database

must

be

updated

to

include

"daily'

market

values

for

1902-1905.

Then,

regression

or

other

more

sophisticated

means

of

anlysis

needs

to

be

introduced

In

work

with

these

data.

Figure

1

.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Winter

Wheat

($

Yield

at

10

%

Protein

+

Premium)

Northern

Ag

Research

Center,

Havre

$/Acre

Preliminary

Data

MSU/AEe/NAOC

Havn

IMt'

Yield

$'s

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

-

$

19.71/ac

$154.07

$135.57

Red

win

n

Cree

Cneyenre

Norwin

6-Yr

Mean

(1982-1988)^

$147.05

Norstar

•1066

Nursery

Loet

to

Drought

Conditions

Basis

-

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Portland

Deliv

Figure

la.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Winter

Wheat

($

Yield

at

10

%

Protein

+

Premium)

Northern

Ag

Research

Center,

Havre

$/Acre

$143.61

Preliminary

Data

MCU/AEe/NAnC

Havn

Yield

$'S

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

■

$

16.63/ac

$161.51

$

$137.43

150.31

$149.04

fi

edwln

Neely

5-Yr

Mean

(1983-1988)*

$132.Vi

Judith

Norstar

•1065

Nursery

Loet

to

Drought

Conditions

Basis

■

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Pcxtlarid

Deliv

Figure

2.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Winter

Wheat

($

Yield

at

10

%

Protein

+

Pfemlum)

Myers

Farms

inc.,

Big

Sandy

$/Aore

$200

r

$158.17

$160

-

$100

-

$50

-

$0

Tiber

Preliminary

Data

M8U/AE6/NARO-Havi«

N\\\N

Yield

$'s

BB

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

■

$

13.46/ac

$149.25

$146.92

$144.00

$130.60

$134.43

i

Redwin

Ore©

Rocky

Norwin

Norstar

6"Yr

Mean

(1983-1988)

Basis

•

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Hortland

Oellv

Figure

2a.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Winter

Wheat

($

Yield

at

10

%

Protein

♦

Premium)

Myers

Farms

Inc.,

Big

Sandy

$150

r

$100

-

$/Aore

$121.61

Yield

$'s

BB

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

•

$

23.68/ao

$114.49

$114.33

$120.36

$103.24

$102.69

$96.87

$50

-

Tiber

Preliminary

Data

MS

U/AE6/NAAO-H««ra

Redwin

Oree

Rooky

Norwin

Norstar

Judith

3-Yr

Mean

(1986-1988)

Basis

-

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Hortland

Ueliv

r-1

Figure

3.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Winter

Wheat

($

Yield

at

10

%

Protein

*

Premium)

Peterson

Grain

&

Cattle,

North

Havre

$200

$150

-

$100

$50

-

$/Acre

$0

Yield

$'s

BB

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

•

$

26.7&/ac

$U3.Q1

$145.09

$124.0

$128.16

Tiber

Preliminary

Data

M8U/AE&/NAR0-Havi*

Hedwin

Norwin

Norstar

3-Yr

Mean

(1983,1984.1988)

Basis

•

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Portland

Deliv

Figure

4.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

+

Premium)

Northern

Ag

Research

Center,

Havre

$/Aore

^U7.26

Yield

$'a

Protein

Premium

S's

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

«

$

14.24/00

$157.66

A

^^•3r.2Q

$156.13

$135.52

Glenman

Preliminary

Data

USU/AE6/NAflO-Hrrra

Ne»vana

Pondera

7-Yr

Mean

(1982-1988)

Fortuna

Basis

-

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Portland

Deiiv

Figure

4a.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

+

Premium)

Northern

Ag

Research

Center,

Havre

Yield

$'s

Protein

Premium

$'s

$/Acre

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

-

$

16.07/ac

$106.77

$112.59

$111.84

$111.87

$90.77

$00.15

Glenman

Newane

Pondera

Fortune

Ml

6402

Preliminary

Data

W6U/AE&

/NAAO-Hvvi*

4-Yr

Mean

(1985-1988)

Basis

■

Ave.

Annual

Mkl.,

Pcytiand

Deliv

Figure

5

//Z.

Gross

Return

-

Recrop

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

*

Premium)

Northern

Ag

Research

Center,

Havre

$/Acre

$123.29

Glenman

Preliminary

Data

U6U/AE6/KARO-Havn

Yield

$'s

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

■

$

15.67/ao

$10R.a9

$10R.64

$104.18

Newana

Pondere

5-Yr

Mean

(1983-1987)

$63.21

Fortune

Baals

•

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Horttand

Uellv

Figure

6.

G.ross

Return

-

Fallow

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

+

Premium)

Peterson

Grain

&

Cattle,

North

Havre

M

Yield

S's

Protein

Premium

$'s

$/Acre

$134.41

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

•

$

15.71/ac

$128.43

$118.79

$121.88

$112.11

Glenman

Preiiminary

Data

U6U/AE£/NARO-Hv«rr«

Ne^^na

Pondere

Fortune

6-Yr

Mean

(1983-1988)

Basis

■

Ave.

Annual

Mk!.,

Portland

Dellv

Figure

7.

Gross

Return

-

Recrop

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

*

Premium)

Peterson

Grain

&

Cattle,

North

Havre

$/Acre

$G2,63

Yield

$'s

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

■

$

21.45/ac

$92.8

$68.77

$05.12

$70.77

Gienman

Preliminary

Data

M6U/AE6/NARO-Ktvf«

Newena

Ponde.'-e

4-Yr

Mean

(1984-1987)

Fortune

Basis

•

Ave,

Annual

tv4kt„

Portland

Oelfv

Figure

0.

Gross

Return

-

Recrop

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

+

Premium)

Russ

Tempel

Farm,

North

Joplln

$/Aore

$113.74

Yield

$'s

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

-

$

16.59/ac

$106.38

$108.45

$95.74

Gienman

Preliminary

Data

W6U\AE6\NAnO-

H«vr*

Newana

Pondere

Fortune

5-Yr

Mean

(1983-1987)

Basis

-

Ave.

Annual

Mkt.,

Portland

De.'iv

pn

Figure

9.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

♦

Premium)

Leon

Cederberg

Farm,

Turner

$/Acre

$126

r

N\VM

Yield

$'s

fl

B

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rtn

-

$

11.4

7/ac

$75,591

$92.56

$83.22

$79.16

$73.82

Qlenman

Preliminary

Data

MSU/AECi/NARO-H«vn

Newana

Lew

Pondera

Fortune

6-Yr

Mean

(1983-1988)

Basis

•

Ai/e.

Annual

Mkt.,

Portland

Deliv

Figure

10.

Gross

Return

-

Fallow

Spring

Wheat

($

Yield

at

13

%

Protein

♦

Premium)

Harold

Solberg

Farm.

North

Dodson

$/Aore

$125

r

$96.87

$100

-

$75

-

$50

-

$25

$0

Gienman

Preliminary

Data

M6U/AE6/NARO-H«vra

hNWN

Yield

$'s

IB

Protein

Premium

$'s

LSD,

Gross

Rfn

«

$

12.93/ac

$91.62

$66

$69

.58

.07

$83.25

i

Newana

Lew

Pondera

Fortune

5-Yr

Mean

(1984-1988)

Basis

■

Avp.

Annual

Mkt.,

Pcx'tland

Dellv