Montana Dryland Winter Wheat Planting Outlook

Step 1 · Choose your field and planting dateMap on the left · field checks on the rightNo field selected

STEP 1 · SELECT YOUR FIELDSTEP 1 · YOUR FIELD

Pin your field and see field-specific planting conditions.

Search an address, city or ZIP, then zoom to the exact field. Add field checks only if you know them.

START WITH YOUR FIELD

Pin your field location to see today’s conditions, mapped soil, and planting-date tradeoffs.

Search by address, city or ZIP. The map switches to satellite view so you can zoom in and place the pin on the correct field.

FIND YOUR AREASearch by Montana street address, city, ZIP code, or latitude/longitude.After a match, the weather colors turn off and satellite imagery opens for precise field selection. Pan/zoom, then click the exact field.

Choose the map layer & dateSwitch among seed-zone water, profile water, soil temperature, and fall thermal opportunity.−

Dec 15 horizon

Loading data…14-day window rolls forward daily

For planting:Select a parameter above to see its planting meaning.

ACTIVE MAPSeed-zone moistureToday

FIELD LOCATIONSearch an address/city/ZIP or click the map to zoom closer.At a close field view, click once to place the field pin.

FIND & PIN YOUR FIELDSearch address/city/ZIP above · satellite mode opens automatically · zoom/pan · click exact field to pin.

Loading regional weather fields…

Regional weather screening surface; zooming improves field-location precision but does not increase weather-model resolution. Hover for coordinates/value. Gold teardrop = selected field. Basemap: Esri World Imagery.

YOUR FIELD TODAYToday's conditions & mapped soil profileModeled weather is context; SSURGO is mapped soil information. Verify actual seed-row moisture in the field.

Today at this fieldPin a field to see today's conditions and planting checks.

Soil profile & water-holding capacityPin a field to load USDA SSURGO horizons, mapped soil series/component, and available-water capacity.

YOUR FIELD INFORMATION

Planting date and field checks

Enter only what you know. The tool will not guess missing field conditions.

Pin a field

Selected dateSelect a field first

Change date

FIELD CHECKSSeed depth, moisture and volunteer cerealsSeed depth, moisture and green bridgeThese field checks matter more than a model value alone.

Quick field-check helpProbe 2–3 spots and use a simple feel check.+

ABOUT 1 MINUTECheck 2–3 representative spots in the seed row.

USDA feel guide ↗

1

Find the moist layerUse a soil probe, narrow trowel, or spade. Record the first depth where soil stays consistently moist—not one damp pocket.

2

Feel the planned seed depthSqueeze a small sample. Dry soil stays loose or powdery; moist soil holds together and feels clearly moist; wet soil is sticky, smeary, or glistening.

If the field is variable, check more than one spot and enter the typical condition.

Planned seeding depthChoose the depth you expect to use. Keep placement as shallow as practical while reaching reliable moisture. At what depth do you first find continuous moisture?Check 2–3 representative spots and choose the typical depth. Will seed-zone moisture last? Advanced field checkOptional advanced observation for false-start interpretation. Living volunteer cereals / grassy hostsVolunteer cereals / green bridgeLiving hosts can carry disease into newly planted wheat.Living hosts can override otherwise favorable conditions. How deep is the soil profile currently moist? Optional · yield scenarios

in

Enter the approximate moist depth from the soil surface downward. Example: if the profile is moist to about 3 ft, enter 36 in.

How do I measure this?

Use a soil probe or auger at several representative spots. Record the approximate depth from the surface to which the profile remains moist, then enter the typical/average depth. This is different from the depth to first continuous moisture used for seed placement near the soil surface. The stored-water estimate is approximate because it combines this observed moist depth with mapped SSURGO available-water capacity rather than a measured water-content profile.

Typical historical yield for this field Optional

bu/ac

Used as a practical comparison when the water-limited estimate exceeds normal field performance.

Enter this once. The same field check is used in today's guidance, nearby-date context and planting adjustments. You can edit it anytime.

Optional field details

Seedbed surface today OptionalOptional context for emergence through the surface. It does not set seeding depth or the planting verdict by itself. How does soil feel at the planned seed depth? Field aid

Soil-moisture feel cues update after mapped surface texture loads.

Variety ability to emerge from deeper seeding Depth checkDeep planting is riskier for varieties that emerge poorly from depth. Residue cover Context Previous crop Context Surface condition Context

Why do these inputs matter?

Planting dateSets the forecast lead, remaining fall thermal opportunity and regional disease-timing context.

Planned seed depth + moisture depthShows whether the intended placement reaches continuous field moisture.

Seedbed conditionToday’s surface condition helps describe what the seedling must emerge through.

Living volunteer cerealsAn important safety check because living grassy hosts can carry disease into newly planted wheat.

Moisture persistenceAn optional advanced observation used with modeled drying to flag a possible false start.

OPTIONAL · WATER-LIMITED YIELD SCENARIOS

Water-limited yield scenarios

Uses your field-measured moist profile depth plus historical May–July precipitation to show dry, typical, and wet planning ranges. These are not yield forecasts.

MSU CWP · 4.2 bu/ac/in

Pin a field to calculate mapped profile capacity.Enter the field-measured moist profile depth in Your Field Information above to calculate the three water-limited planning ranges.

Long-range precipitation signalPin a field to load the ECMWF EC46 + SEAS5 ensemble-mean winter/early-spring precipitation context.

Curious how these scenarios are calculated? Data, method & references

Stored water: mapped SSURGO available-water capacity is integrated only through the probe/moist-depth you enter, up to 60 in. Future precipitation: Daymet 1991–2020 May 1–July 31 precipitation provides dry/normal/wet historical ranges, matching the precipitation window used in the MSU publication. Yield: stored water + scenario precipitation is multiplied by the MSU winter-wheat crop water productivity of 4.2 bu/ac/in. The ECMWF EC46 + SEAS5 ensemble mean is shown only as a long-range wet/dry planning signal; it does not replace the historical scenario ranges. NOAA CPC 90-day precipitation outlooks are an independent official cross-check and are not blended into the numeric scenarios.

Important: precipitation is not the same as crop water use. Runoff, evaporation, snow redistribution, soil recharge, fertility, weeds, disease, variety, winter injury and management can all reduce realized yield. These values are water-limited planning scenarios, not predicted yields.

MSU Extension · Water Productivity of Montana Crops (MT202204AG) ↗ · NOAA CPC seasonal precipitation outlooks ↗

Pin a field to continue.The planting date defaults to today. Unverified field checks can remain marked “Not checked,” but the outlook will keep them visible as unresolved.

How Was This Map Made? Data, Interpolation, Sources & Limitations

See supporting dataSee the data evidenceOpen the plots and model values only if you want the technical detail.Open the charts, today’s model values and the detailed mapped soil profile.+

SUPPORTING DATASTEP 3 · SUPPORTING FIELD EVIDENCE

See the weather trend, model values, and mapped soil.

These details explain the field outlook. They do not replace your field check.

TODAY'S MODELED BASELINEStarting state for future-date comparisons

Pin a field to see the current safety gate and best next action.

Pin a Montana field to load the selected-coordinate forecast and nearby observed context.

MAPPED SOIL PROFILEUSDA SSURGO context at the pinned coordinate

USDA soil-survey information will load after a field is pinned.

TODAY’S CONDITIONSSTEP 2 · YOUR FIELD TODAY

What do today’s conditions mean for your planting plan?What do conditions mean for your planting date?

Start with the short field message and your soil. Open the data only if you want to see why.Start with three separate checks: planting safety, whether the stand can start, and how much fall thermal development opportunity remains.

Today’s model snapshotSelect a field to load today’s values.

Know your soilMapped soil information will appear after a field is selected.

Show detailed evidence + data qualityOpen all six model/weather indicators, establishment-runway context, provenance and quality-control checks.View evidence ↓

Evidence for this dateSix model / weather indicators + data quality

Interpretation first; raw values remain secondary.

Select a field, then choose a planting date.

Data quality & technical checksRecent water response, forecast agreement and research-only diagnostics

Recent water validationPin a field to compare the last 7 days of modeled precipitation with modeled soil-water response.

STEP 2 · YOUR PLANTING DATE IN CONTEXTSTEP 4 · NEARBY PLANTING DATES

Your planting date in contextHow do the conditions change around your planting date?

First see how this date compares with 30 years of history. Then see the simple water-versus-fall-growth tradeoff of moving earlier or later.Compare nearby dates. A different date may help one condition while making another less favorable.

Select a field and intended date.The 14-day comparison will appear here.

What changes if you plant earlier or later?Seed-zone water shows wetter/drier model direction. Thermal opportunity shows how much fall heat remains.+

Read two rows:Seed-zone water — blue/larger = wetter model; orange/smaller = drier. Check actual seed-depth moisture. Fall thermal opportunity — larger purple = more remaining GDD for fall growth; waiting usually reduces it.

Select a field and planting date to load the Planting Window Finder.

30-year contextSelect a field and intended planting date.

How to use this date comparisonUse it only if you can move planting a few days earlier or later.

Planting earlier: only consider it if the field is ready and moisture is adequate at the planned seed depth.

Planting later: modeled moisture may improve, but remaining fall thermal opportunity decreases.

Look at the tradeoff: one date can help one condition and hurt another.

Before changing plans: check seed-depth moisture, the local forecast, green bridge risk and how much thermal development opportunity remains.

If no nearby date clearly improves the tradeoff, your intended date may still be the most practical choice.Use this as field context, not a guarantee. Also consider field access, residue, forecast uncertainty and your own field experience.

STEP 3 · PLANTING ADJUSTMENTSSTEP 5 · PLANTING ADJUSTMENTS

Adjust planting to what you find in the field.Adjust the setup to the seedbed you actually find.

Review or update the field checks here. Changes are used immediately in the planting setup.Use the field condition you see at planting. Do not change the drill setup from the map alone.

ACTIONABLE

Your field check will appear here.Enter it once beside the map; edit only if the field condition changes.

Pin a field and complete the field check to see the matching setup guidance.

Full planting-adjustment guide & referencesOpen the detailed seed-depth, seed-rate, placement, residue, fertility, and seed-treatment guidance with source links.Open guide ↓

For planting:Use the column that matches what you actually find at seed depth. Do not change seeding depth or rate from the map alone.

How these management categories were developed

These are tool-created field-management classes, not published named categories. Dry, marginal and favorable conditions come from field checks at intended seed depth; the Wuest–Lutcher water-potential values remain literature context only. Deeper Moisture Confirmed requires an actual field check and follows MSU depth guidance. Wuest & Lutcher ↗ MSU Guide ↗

Management AdjustmentCompare across planting conditions	Dry / Dust-InProtect establishment	Deeper Moisture ConfirmedReach moisture carefully	Favorable SeedbedUse the standard setup
Category	Dry / powdery at intended seed depthLiterature context: increasingly incomplete germination near/below about −1.6 MPa.Wuest & Lutcher ↗	Normal seed zone dry; usable moisture confirmed deeperRequires a field check—do not infer moisture depth from the map.MSU ↗	Moist at intended seed depthLiterature context: rapid germination above about −1.1 MPa.Wuest & Lutcher ↗
Seed depth	1–2 inDust-in if the fall window is closing; do not automatically chase absent moisture.MSU ↗	Only as deep as needed; ≤3 inConfirm moisture first.MSU ↗	1–2 in into moistureMSU ↗
Cultivar / emergence	Locally adapted cultivarStandard emergence ability at normal depth.	Favor proven deep-emergence / longer-coleoptile abilityRht8 is not required.Agronomy Journal ↗	Locally adapted cultivar
Seed rate	0.7–0.9 M PLS/ac baselineDo not increase for dryness alone.MSU ↗	Start with baselineIncrease only for delayed planting or expected stand loss.MSU ↗	0.7–0.9 M PLS/ac15–21 seeds/ft² dryland baseline.MSU ↗
Seed-row fertilizer	Be conservative10 lb/ac N + K₂O is a starting safe rate; dry/coarse soil may require less.MSU Soil Fertility ↗	Be conservative at depthUse the same starting-safe concept; actual safety depends on soil and opener geometry.MSU Soil Fertility ↗	10 lb/ac N + K₂O starting safe rateAdjust for soil, moisture, opener width and row spacing.MSU Soil Fertility ↗
Seed treatment	Strongly considerDry-seed-decay protection is finite.MSU ↗	Recommended as appropriateMatch product to labeled disease risk.MSU ↗	Match seed and field disease riskMSU ↗
Equipment / drill	Verify penetration + seed–soil contactHard, dry soil may require setup changes; extra packing cannot replace moisture.Nebraska Extension ↗	Hoe / deep-furrow opener may helpSlow down, verify actual soil cover, and keep Montana placement ≤3 in. Nebraska ↗MSU ↗	Standard calibrated setupMaintain uniform 1–2 in placement and good seed–soil contact. MSU ↗Nebraska ↗
Main caution	Emergence may depend on subsequent rainfallDo not mistake a dry model screen for a measured field condition.	Deep placement can delay or reduce emergenceAgronomy Journal ↗	Favorable moisture does not remove WSMV, crusting or profitability risk

Thresholds & Technical ReferenceOpen only when you want the benchmark numbers and source details.

Metric	How to read it	Key benchmark	Source
Seed-zone water · 0–4 in	GFS VWC is model context only. The grower field check at intended seed depth is the primary germination-water evidence.	Literature context: > −1.1 MPa rapid germination; −1.1 to −1.6 MPa slower/marginal. The tool does not derive field ψ from GFS + SSURGO.	Wuest & Lutcher 2013 ↗
Soil temperature · 0–4 in	Within the published range, warmer soil generally speeds emergence.	41–68°F (5–20°C): controlled emergence-response range used for context; outside it, no score is extrapolated.	Lafond & Fowler 1989 ↗
Conditional thermal emergence window	MSU air-temperature GDD reference is shown independently of model VWC; moisture must be field-confirmed before interpreting it as emergence expectation.	257–320°F-d, base 32°F. For future dates it remains a thermal reference until field moisture is checked.	MSU GDD MontGuide ↗
Fall thermal opportunity	Remaining base-32°F GDD from after a candidate planting date through Dec. 15. More GDD means more temperature-driven development opportunity, not automatically a better planting date.	Use with field moisture, WSMV timing and seedbed condition. Dec. 15 is a fixed late-fall comparison endpoint, not a biological dormancy date. Published GDD bands are temperature references, not predicted field stages.	MSU GDD MontGuide ↗
How to interpret the thermal number	<257°F-d median: limited thermal opportunity relative to the published lower emergence reference. 257–335: median reaches emergence reference. 336–695: median reaches the lower two-leaf reference. ≥696: median reaches the lower first-tiller reference.	These are thermal-reference crossings only. Actual development requires moisture and successful establishment; late or dormant seeding can still establish later.	MSU GDD MontGuide ↗ MSU Wheat Production Guide ↗
Emergence thermal context	Compares remaining base-32°F thermal opportunity with the MSU 257–320°F-d emergence reference. The statewide map shows the median margin above or below the 257°F-d lower reference.	Temperature only. This does not predict emergence or crop stage. Moisture, seeding depth, crusting and seed vigor are not included; two-leaf and first-tiller references remain provisional for fall-planted winter wheat.	MSU GDD MontGuide ↗
Profile water reserve (0–39 in)	+ = modeled storage gain vs today; − = modeled storage loss.	Reserve/rooting context after emergence; not the germination trigger and not field-measured PAW.	Lollato et al. 2016 ↗
7-day atmospheric moisture balance (P − ET₀)	+ = precipitation exceeds reference ET₀; − = atmospheric demand exceeds precipitation.	Context only—not soil recharge, crop ET, runoff, drainage or soil-water change.	FAO-56 ↗
Wheat streak mosaic timing	Avoid early planting and remove the green bridge; field conditions override the calendar.	General MSU guide: plant after Sep 5 north, Sep 15 central, Sep 20 southeast; kill volunteer cereals/grassy hosts 2–3 weeks before planting. Select a field and date for local status.	MSU Cereal Viruses ↗ MSU WSMV IPM ↗

Why Dec. 15? It is a fixed late-fall comparison horizon so every candidate date is evaluated to the same endpoint. It is not a dormancy date. The tool no longer turns MSU's roughly 4–6 weeks of fall growth into a grower-facing cutoff using an unvalidated 40°F endpoint. MSU Wheat Production Guide ↗

Fall wheat development · quick field guideGermination → emergence → leaves → tillering. Morphology reference only; not a predicted stage.Open quick guide

Use representative plants. Count fully unfolded leaves and tillers separately; dig plants when seed placement, roots, coleoptile or crown position matters.

Guide only. Select a field and planting date to highlight the conditional thermal references.

Field-staging notes & published references

1Sample representative plants

2Dig plants when needed

3Count unfolded leaves

4Count tillers separately

USDA-ARS winter wheat visual guide ↗GRDC Zadoks guide ↗AHDB Wheat Growth Guide ↗NSW DPI guide ↗MSU Montana Wheat Production Guide ↗

Use of outside-Montana guides: morphology and staging concepts only. Montana management recommendations continue to use MSU/Great Plains sources.

Technical documentation: equations, methods, data sources & citations

Data sources & provenance

Validation status & uncertainty

References & acronyms

MORE HELP

Montana State University resources

Open the topic you need next.

Montana Wheat Production GuidePlanting, development, fertility, disease and management guidance. Fertilizer Recommendation ToolMSU fertilizer recommendation from soil-test and crop-management inputs. Seed Rate CalculatorCalculate seeding rate from target stand, seed weight, germination, purity and mortality. Statewide Winter Wheat Variety SelectionCompare Montana variety-trial performance across sites and years. Wheat Streak Mosaic GuidanceGreen-bridge, volunteer-cereal and planting-timing guidance for wheat streak mosaic risk management.

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